New Zealand importers, exporters, wholesalers and manufacturers entered 2026 hoping global supply chains had finally settled after several years of pandemic-era disruption. Instead, regional conflict, fuel-price volatility, tariff changes and currency swings have reshaped costs and lead times – often extending the period between paying suppliers and receiving revenue from customers.
The challenge for businesses is not simply that costs are higher than they were six months ago. The amount and timing of the funding needed to secure stock have also become harder to predict.
Disruption has become a standard operating condition
New Zealand’s distance from major markets and reliance on international freight mean that changes to shipping routes, fuel prices and port conditions can flow rapidly through to local businesses. Goods may need to be ordered earlier, suppliers may seek larger deposits or shorter payment terms, and businesses may hold more buffer stock to protect against delays.
The latest data shows how quickly these pressures can escalate. In June 2026, the value of merchandise imports to New Zealand reached $8.1 billion – 28% higher than a year earlier. Petroleum and petroleum-product imports doubled to almost $1.5 billion.
The increase was driven mainly by price rather than volume:
- The value of automotive diesel imports rose 160%, while the quantity increased by only 4.6%. The average unit value rose 148%.
- The average unit value of imported motor spirit increased 73%.
- The average unit value of imported jet fuel increased 157%.
Across the June quarter, seasonally adjusted goods imports rose 7.7% to $23.9 billion. Annual goods imports reached $87.8 billion in the year to June 2026, underlining the scale of New Zealand businesses’ exposure to changes in global pricing, transport and supply conditions. (Stats NZ)
For businesses affected by price hikes, the impact is not confined to the freight invoice. Delayed inputs can interrupt production, postpone sales, create additional storage costs and leave more money tied up in goods that are offshore, in transit or waiting to clear Customs.
Peak trading magnifies the timing gap
As thousands of New Zealand SMEs prepare for Black Friday, Christmas and other peak trading periods, timing is a critical issue. Stock may need to be ordered and paid for months before it is sold. Freight delays can extend that period, while wholesale customers may pay on 30, 60 or 90-day terms.
A business can therefore be profitable on paper and still face a significant working capital shortfall. The more stock it carries – and the longer its cash-conversion cycle becomes – the less cash it has available for wages, KiwiSaver contributions, GST, rent and the next supplier order.
Ordering additional inventory may reduce the risk of running out of stock, but it can create another risk if the purchase absorbs the cash needed to keep the rest of the business operating.
Higher landed costs put margins and cash flow under pressure
New Zealand businesses are already reporting greater cost pressure. The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion for the June 2026 quarter found the proportion of firms reporting higher costs increased from a net 37% to more than half of all firms surveyed. A net 41% reported increasing prices.
However, the ability to recover higher costs varied considerably. Businesses in the building sector cut prices despite rising fuel and construction-material costs because demand remained subdued. Retailers were more likely to raise prices, but continued to report weak profitability as their costs also increased. (NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion)
This is the critical working capital issue. Businesses with strong market positions may be able to pass on higher landed costs relatively quickly. Smaller businesses competing on price, fulfilling existing contracts or supplying major customers are more likely to absorb at least part of the increase. Every dollar of absorbed margin reduces the cash available for the next payroll, supplier deposit or stock purchase. Businesses with limited cash reserves cannot carry that pressure indefinitely.
Although fuel prices eased from their earlier 2026 peaks, NZIER described the economic recovery as fragile and noted that fuel costs were continuing to feed into business expenses, particularly in construction, agriculture and transport. (NZIER Quarterly Predictions)
SMEs are already reconsidering their response
ScotPac’s latest SME Growth Index Report – based on interviews with Australian SMEs – provides a useful trans-Tasman indication of how businesses are responding to similar pressures.
Rising input and supply costs were identified as the leading cash flow pressure, nominated by 19% of surveyed SMEs. Geopolitical conflict and supply-chain disruption were identified by 12% as their greatest external risk to revenue growth.
Almost half of the SMEs surveyed planned to secure more flexible supply-chain funding over the following 12 to 18 months. A further 31% intended to move closer to key suppliers and customers, while 23% planned to shorten their supply chains or reduce complexity.
Although these findings are not a direct measure of New Zealand SMEs, the underlying issues are highly relevant to local importers, exporters and manufacturers. Diversifying suppliers, holding additional stock, changing freight routes or moving parts of a supply chain closer to customers can improve resilience – but each strategy may require upfront investment at a time when cash flow is already under pressure.
The role of Trade Finance
Trade Finance is one option – or part of a broader solution that may also include Invoice Finance and other working capital facilities – that businesses dealing with domestic or overseas suppliers can consider.
It is designed around the gap between paying a supplier and receiving revenue from the eventual sale. It can support purchases of stock, inventory and raw materials, with funding aligned more closely to the trade cycle than a conventional fixed loan.
That distinction becomes important when disruptions extend lead times. Paying a supplier earlier, increasing an order or carrying additional buffer stock may make commercial sense, but it can weaken day-to-day liquidity if funded entirely from cash reserves. An appropriately structured facility can help keep orders on track while preserving working capital for the rest of the business.
Trade Finance does not remove commercial risk. Businesses still need realistic demand forecasts, disciplined inventory management, suitable foreign-exchange arrangements and confidence in their suppliers and customers. It can, however, help prevent a temporary timing mismatch from becoming the reason a commercially sound order is delayed or declined.
Five checks before committing to new stock
A good starting point for businesses reliant on overseas trade or imported inputs are the following five checks.
- Map the complete cash cycle: Identify when supplier deposits, final balances, freight, insurance, GST, duty, Customs and other clearance costs fall due. Compare those dates with realistic sales and customer payment assumptions.
- Stress-test the downside: Model the effect of a freight delay, a weaker New Zealand dollar, a supplier price increase and slower-than-expected sales. The analysis should identify the maximum likely funding gap – not simply the average case.
- Review supplier concentration and terms: Assess whether a critical input or product depends on one supplier, shipping route or region. Explore alternative suppliers and ensure contracts and documentation provide appropriate protections around timing, quality and delivery.
- Separate stock funding from operating cash. Using all available reserves to purchase inventory can leave a business exposed when payroll, GST, PAYE and other commitments fall due. Preserve an appropriate liquidity buffer for normal operations and unexpected costs.
- Arrange facilities before urgency dictates the terms. Finance is generally more useful when established before supplier payments are due. Early planning provides more time to assess affordability, security requirements and whether repayment will align with the expected sales cycle.
For brokers and advisers, this checklist can provide a starting point for client conversations and discovery sessions. In some cases, it may reveal a working capital requirement the business has not yet recognised.
How ScotPac NZ can help
ScotPac has more than 35 years’ experience supporting businesses through changing economic and trading conditions. Our specialists work with businesses to understand their complete operating cycle – including supplier terms, stock lead times, customer payment patterns and currency requirements.
For eligible New Zealand businesses, ScotPac’s Trade Finance can support payments to domestic and overseas suppliers for stock, inventory and raw materials. Combined with Invoice Finance, both sides of the cycle can be supported – funding purchases before goods are sold, and releasing cash from eligible receivables once invoices have been issued.
In an environment where input costs and supply lead times can change with little notice, businesses can’t predict every disruption. They can, however, build greater flexibility into their working capital arrangements, making stock decisions, supplier negotiations and unexpected delays easier to manage.
SMEs who want to learn more about how to build supply chain resilience should talk to their broker or contact ScotPac directly to learn more.
